The real cost of a wagering requirement, worked out in Canadian dollars

How do you turn a wagering requirement into a dollar figure?

Every bet you place loses, on average, the house edge of the game. That is all the calculation needs. The Wizard of Odds, which has published bonus maths for years, uses the same method for cashable bonuses: multiply the required turnover by the house edge to get the expected cost of clearing it.

Three lines do the work:

• Turnover = the amount the multiple applies to × the multiple ÷ the game's weighting.
• Expected loss = turnover × house edge. On a slot, the house edge is 100% minus the RTP.
• Expected value of the bonus = the bonus amount − the expected loss.

A positive result means the offer is worth more than it costs on average; a negative one means the requirement eats the bonus and then some. This is a simple model: it assumes you clear the requirement in full and do not run out of money first, which matters later.

What does C$100 at 35x cost on a 96% slot?

Take a C$100 bonus with a 35x requirement on the bonus only, played on a slot with 96% RTP (a 4% house edge), with slots counting 100% towards wagering.

• Turnover: C$100 × 35 ÷ 1.00 = C$3,500
• Expected loss: C$3,500 × 0.04 = C$140
• Expected value: C$100 − C$140 = −C$40

On average, you hand back the C$100 bonus plus C$40 of your own deposit. The Wizard of Odds makes the same point with a rule of thumb it calls the 4% rule, built on a game with a 4% edge. The break-even multiple is simply 1 ÷ house edge, so 1 ÷ 0.04 = 25x on a 96% slot. Anything above 25x on that slot is a losing offer on average.

Time is a cost too. At C$1 a spin, C$3,500 of turnover is 3,500 spins. Ontario's AGCO Registrar's Standards set a minimum of 2.5 seconds per slot game cycle, so even with no pauses at all that is 3,500 × 2.5 = 8,750 seconds, or about 2 hours 26 minutes of continuous spinning.

Does blackjack clear it cheaper?

Blackjack's house edge is far lower. The Wizard of Odds gives 0.28% for liberal Las Vegas rules and 0.43% for Atlantic City rules with basic strategy. Online rules vary, so the examples below use 0.5% to allow for a less generous table. The catch is game weighting. Bonus terms often count table games at a fraction of their stake, and the bonus terms catalogued by the Wizard of Odds include weightings such as 10% for blackjack.

• At 10% weighting: turnover = C$3,500 ÷ 0.10 = C$35,000; expected loss = C$35,000 × 0.005 = C$175; expected value = C$100 − C$175 = −C$75
• At 100% weighting: turnover = C$3,500; expected loss = C$3,500 × 0.005 = C$17.50; expected value = +C$82.50

So at 10% weighting, blackjack is worse than the 96% slot (−C$75 against −C$40), even though its house edge is one-eighth as large. The weighting multiplies turnover by ten and wipes out the advantage. The break-even multiple at 10% weighting is 0.10 ÷ 0.005 = 20x. A 35x offer is well past that.

Roulette shows how bad it can get. European roulette has a 2.70% edge according to the Wizard of Odds. At 10% weighting, C$35,000 of turnover × 0.027 = C$945 of expected loss to clear a C$100 bonus. Our blackjack guide covers rule variations that move the edge.

Does it matter if the multiple applies to deposit plus bonus?

It roughly doubles the cost on a matched offer. Say you deposit C$100, get a C$100 bonus, and the 35x applies to both:

• Turnover on a 96% slot: C$200 × 35 = C$7,000; expected loss = C$7,000 × 0.04 = C$280; expected value = C$100 − C$280 = −C$180
• Blackjack at 10% weighting: C$70,000 of turnover; expected loss = C$350
• Blackjack at 100% weighting: C$7,000 of turnover; expected loss = C$35; expected value = +C$65

Notice that the slot figure is impossible in practice: you cannot lose C$280 from a C$200 balance. When the expected loss is larger than everything in the account, the formula is telling you that the most likely outcome is running out of money before the requirement is met. In that case the realistic worst case is losing the bonus and the full C$100 deposit, and the chance of finishing with anything is small. Read the welcome terms for the phrase "deposit + bonus" or "(D+B)" before anything else. Our welcome bonus guide shows where the terms usually put it.

How much does a single percentage point of RTP change?

More than most players expect, because it is multiplied by the whole turnover. Same C$100 bonus, same 35x on the bonus, slots at 100% weighting:

Every point of RTP is worth C$35 on this offer. That is why the RTP of the exact game you play matters more than the headline multiple. The Wizard of Odds notes that slot house edges range widely, from about 2% to 15%, so the bottom of that range turns a bonus into an expensive way to play.

Why are casinos allowed to weight games at all?

Because low-edge games would otherwise make bonuses a guaranteed gain for players who know the maths, as the 100% blackjack line above shows. The Wizard of Odds' catalogue of bonus terms shows weightings such as 25% for other games, or 20% for table games and 10% for blackjack, and some games are excluded entirely. It gives an extreme example: a 30x requirement on a game counting 3% works out to 1,000x the bonus in real turnover.

Maximum bet caps exist for a related reason. The Wizard of Odds lists caps per spin or hand on bonus play and notes that exceeding one can void the bonus and its winnings. Caps stop players from structuring bets to swing the balance up quickly and then switch to low-risk play. How those caps work, and what one oversized spin can cost, is covered in our article on the bonus maximum bet rule.

Is "no wagering" always the better deal?

Not automatically. No-wagering offers tend to be much smaller, and the maths only compares like with like when you put a dollar value on both. Compare two offers on a 96% slot:

• 50 no-wagering free spins at C$0.20: each spin returns 96% of its stake on average, so 50 × C$0.20 × 0.96 = C$9.60 of expected cash
• A C$100 bonus at 10x on the bonus: turnover = C$1,000; expected loss = C$40; expected value = +C$60

The low-wagering bonus is worth about six times as much on average, even though it comes with a requirement. The no-wagering offer is simpler and its value arrives as withdrawable cash, which counts for something if you value certainty over expected dollars. But at 35x, the same C$100 bonus is worth −C$40, and the C$9.60 of free spins wins easily.

The comparison that matters is not "wagering or no wagering" but "what is each offer worth in C$ after its terms". Our no-wagering bonus page lists what to check on those offers.

How do you run the numbers on your own offer?

1. Find the multiple and what it applies to: bonus only, or deposit plus bonus.
2. Find the weighting for the game you intend to play, and check it is not on the excluded list.
3. Look up that game's RTP and convert it to a house edge: 100% minus RTP.
4. Calculate turnover: base amount × multiple ÷ weighting.
5. Multiply turnover by the house edge to get the expected loss, and subtract it from the bonus.
6. Compare the turnover with your balance. If it is dozens of times larger on a volatile game, expect to bust more often than not.

A worked check on a different offer: a C$50 bonus at 20x on the bonus only, played on a 97% slot at 100% weighting, gives C$1,000 of turnover, C$30 of expected loss and +C$20 of expected value.

What does the formula leave out?

The expected value is an average across many players, not a forecast for your session. Three things move the real outcome:

• Volatility. A high-variance slot is more likely to bust a small balance before the requirement is met, and more likely to produce a large win when it does not. The average stays the same; the spread of results widens.
• Sticky versus cashable bonuses. The Wizard of Odds separates cashable bonuses, where the bonus itself can be withdrawn after wagering, from sticky ones, where the bonus amount is removed at cash-out. A sticky bonus is worth less than the formula above suggests, because the bonus is never yours to keep.
• Time limits and win caps. A short expiry or a maximum cash-out on bonus winnings cuts the upside without changing the turnover you have to complete.

Run the three lines before you opt in. If the expected value is negative, the offer is a price you pay to play longer, which is fine if that is what you want, but not a gift.